Dubai’s residential property market recorded 15,369 transactions worth AED45.39bn ($12.36bn) in February 2026, reflecting sustained activity across the emirate’s real estate sector as the world’s millionaires and portable wealth continued to flow into Dubai, fuelling a regional population surge.
But on February 28, the emirate’s value proposition as a global safe haven was irrevocably punctured, potentially unwinding years of capital gains after a multi-year bull run built on foreign investment and perceived safety.
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The optimisitc transaction figures were published prior to Iran’s retaliative strikes on Dubai and the wider UAE region, which saw the emirate’s serrated skyline – long a symbol of urban prosperity, rapid growth and a refuge for global capital – in flames as bombs flew over glittering skyscrapers, built on appetite from a monied expatriate base.
On Wednesday 4 March, the Super Prime reported that transaction velocity evidenced by February’s volumes – has stalled due as force majeure wielded the axe. Dubai’s luxury real estate market had taken a hit both figuratively and physically.
In a market familiar with major stress-cycles and recovery – Covid-19 and the 2008 financial crash – the question now facing brokers, developers, and international investors is whether this is a temporary shock to sentiment or the beginning of a more consequential and pernicious repricing of risk in Dubai.
Dubai developer resilience takes the hit
UAE equity markets reflected the current mood. Since the start of the conflict, The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Real Estate Index dropped by 20%.
Declines in shares of some of the UAE’s largest property developers were hardest felt by Emaar Properties, one of the region’s biggest real estate developers and the builder of landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa and super-prime villa community Emaar Hills, which saw prices fall by 13.6%.
Dubai-based mixed-use developer Deyaar Development shares declined by 11.6%, while Union Properties, another Dubai-listed real estate company behind large-scale developments, dropped by 12.8%.
Emaar Properties - all to play for
However, Emaar Properties founder, Mohamed Alabbar, was upbeat in a video commentary over the weekend, dismissing concerns of an imminent slowdown in the Dubai real estate market and that he had “no concerns” as life returned to normal “with just a bit of extra noise in the background.”
He stated that “he didn’t see a cooldown” and that “there were no issues” with “nobody budging on price or offering discounts” as ancecodotal reports circling around social media suggesting that more predatory investors were scouring property portals for bargain Dubai apartments.
Alabbar highlighted that the sector has seen annual growth rates of up to 70% and attributed the market’s resilience to restricted bank borrowing and proactive national policies that would rapidly restore consumer confidence.
While acknowledging that external factors might cause a temporary loss of confience, he remained firm that the fundamentals of Dubai’s property market are stronger than ever.
Commentary from Dubai real estate brokerage betterhomes also reflected a more robust stance of recovery, reporting that the Dubai market continued to move despite quieter conditions.
Volumes were at 45% below market average the broker said, but engagement across its digital platforms has remained broadly consistent with a normal trading environment — suggesting many people are actively following the market.
Louis Harding, CEO of betterhomes, said the current environment reflects a period of careful decision-making rather than a pause in market activty.
For investors watching Dubai’s real estate markets as the second week of unrest unfolds, the key question is whether the current slowdown is the start of a messy and unpredictable cycle in one of the world’s most polished real estate market or assuming previous recovery patterns will repeat as ‘brand Dubai’ makes its comeback.
With a 2026 handover of an estimated 42,000 to 45,000 homes and luxury branded residences including an entire Mercedes-Benz city, which is already running ahead of population growth, Dubai’s reputational shock override hinges on one key variable: how long the conflict lasts.
