The spring optimism that characterised the opening weeks of 2026 has given way to a more measured mood, according to recent research by Savills.
The agency’s latest prime market analysis covering Q1 2026, paints a more sober picture of recovery; not necessarily derailed, but no longer on the trajectory many industry analysts had hoped for.
Add us as a preferred source to see more super-prime intelligence in Google.
Savills’ have noted that across the UK’s most discretionary prime markets, property price falls have eased, while activity levels remained relatively robust over the opening three months of the year.
But the firm has been candid about what followed: stabilisation under constraint, with pricing still capped despite resilient demand.
Marginal gains for house prices in PCL
In Prime Central London (PCL), Savills’ data shows prices fell by 0.7% through the quarter – a marginal improvement over the same early months in 2025.
Country house values declined by just 0.3% over the same period, compared to falls of 4.2% recorded nine months ago. This suggests a direction of travel towards stabilisation, with the pace of decline slowing across the cycle.
Sellers can take heart from the level of resilience in transaction levels, too. Data from TwentyCi, via the report, indicates activity in February rose above levels for the first time since September, with agreed sales in March also higher than a year ago across both the wider market and £1 million-plus segment.
In London’s domestic prime markets, the South West and West proved most resilient, remaining flat over the quarter.
Areas including Teddington, Wimbledon and Fulham saw prices edge up at the start of the year, bucking the broader trend. Overall, values across prime London’s more domestic market fell by 0.5%.
Prime markets across the Midlands, North of England and Scotland saw price growth in the first quarter, reflecting their comparatively lower reliance on mortgage debt.
Across all prime regional markets, values are down 0.2% on the quarter and 3.9% on the year. At the very top end of the prime regional market – the £2 million-plus segment – values dipped by just 0.6% on the quarter, having fallen 6.9% over the prior year.
A shift in mood between data and sentiment
The headline numbers tell one story; agent sentiment tells another. Savills’ own survey of agents points to a clear shift in confidence, with both buyers and sellers significantly less assured than they were at the end of Q4, when markets most exposed to potential Budget tax changes had experienced a degree of relief.
Frances McDonald, Director of Residential Research at Savills, has been direct in her assessment: “Earlier this year, the outlook for the spring market was promising. Inflation was easing, a rate cut seemed all but certain, and the property tax debate appeared to have been put to bed.”
The macro backdrop has since shifted, introducing fresh headwinds that have paused what might otherwise have been a more decisive recovery.
McDonald noted that prime values are continuing to ease back, albeit at a slower pace – at a time when the market might conservatively have been expected to bottom out, if not begin recovering.
For buyers able to take a medium-term view, she argued, properties at the top end remain good value, with prices in many cases not far from their pre-pandemic levels.
The PCL opportunity – and a warning about its limits
For international capital, the calculus around prime central London is becoming increasingly pointed.
PCL values are now down 25% compared to their 2014 market peak, reinforcing the UK’s appeal as a relative safe haven.
But McDonald was equally clear about the constraints: demand is more likely to come from overseas buyers seeking a London base rather than a broad return of non-dom residents.
Higher stamp duty costs are expected to moderate any upward price pressure, with early signs suggesting some demand is instead being diverted into the capital’s prime rental sector.
The picture, in aggregate, is of a market that entered 2026 with genuine momentum encountering a degree of uncertainty, yet the fundamentals that underpin PCL’s long-run value proposition remain intact.
Whether committed capital chooses to stick or twist, however, will define the market’s trajectory through the remainder of the year.
