When Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s mayoral primary this past June, the reaction from luxury real estate circles was immediate and visceral.
In the primary’s wake, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin, declared the democratic socialist’s ascent had caused “more pause for this event in terms of buying a home than any event in my 13 years in New York City real estate.”
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Agents reported wealthy clients accelerating plans to decamp for Florida. Market watchers predicted Manhattan’s trophy property scene could turn frosty.
The Zohran Surge: luxury sales continue
Six months later, however, after a historic Zohran win, the data tells a different story entirely.
In the week leading to Mamdani’s his general election victory on November 4, were 37 contracts signed last week on homes asking $4 million and above in the borough, marking the third consecutive week with 30 or more contracts inked Donna Olshan, founder of Olshan Realty, says.
In those three weeks, 98 contracts were signed totalling more than $947 million, compared to 71 contracts over the same period last year, which totalled roughly $581.5 million in total transaction value.
This prompts Olshan’s pointed question: “Why haven’t the Mamdani winds of change impacted the luxury real estate market as many have been predicting?”
Understanding the pre-election panic
To understand the disconnect, we must first revisit what sparked the anxiety around NYC’s newly minted mayor. In short, Mamdani’s platform wasn’t subtle.
The 34-year-old had campaigned on freezing rents on rent-stabilised apartments, building 200,000 affordable housing units, and raising taxes on the wealthy to fund free buses and city-owned grocery stores.
Most provocatively, he proposed a 2% city income tax on earnings above $1 million annually. Combined with existing rates, this would push the combined city-state rate to 16.776% – the highest in the nation.
Real estate agents anecdotally reported wealthy buyers pausing decision-making processes almost immediately following his primary victory. The narrative was simple: high taxes, plus progressive housing policies equals capital flight.
Florida alternatively, with its zero state income tax and booming luxury market, seemed poised to benefit directly from New York’s leftward lurch. The logic appeared sound; wealth is mobile, and the wealthy can afford to have options.
Has reality defied the script?
Yet the numbers reveal something more nuanced. In the week ending November 9 – just days after Mamdani’s general election victory – 41 contracts were signed, with 24 of those coming after election night.
It marked the first time 40 or more contracts were signed over the same period since late May, when seasonal strength typically peaks.
Between June 23 and July 13, in the immediate aftermath of Mamdani’s primary win, 64 contracts were signed for apartments over $4 million, up 13% over the previous year and totaling more than $555 million.
The total weekly asking price sales volume recently topped $310 million.
Donna Olshan’s assessment cuts through the noise: “The election was no surprise. It has been baked in for months that Mamdani would win. For months, he had been winning in the polls by significant margins. And this [has not] stopped the rich from buying.”
Why the market has held
Several structural factors explain the luxury market’s resilience. Manhattan’s 60-65% cash buyer concentration insulates high-end transactions from mortgage rate volatility and political uncertainty alike.
These buyers aren’t leveraging property within their portfolios nor banking on appreciation – instead, they’re acquiring assets, often as part of a broader portfolio diversification.
Analysts predict Wall Street bonuses – expected to be 35% higher in 2025 – will inject billions into the housing ecosystem, as a financial class vies for something a little more local in the week, away from their exclusive enclaves to the city’s east. For these ultra-high-net-worth individuals, a New York pied-à-terre remains essential infrastructure, regardless of who occupies City Hall.
Perhaps most importantly, the threat of wealth flight appears overstated. Research from the Fiscal Policy Center reveals that the top 1% of New Yorkers by income leave the city at one quarter the rate of all other income groups.
When they do relocate, they most often choose other high-tax states like New Jersey, Connecticut, or California – suggesting lifestyle rather than tax policy drives these decisions. The ultra-wealthy, it seems, value proximity to cultural institutions, business networks, and elite schools more than marginal tax savings.
Besides, a 2% city income tax increase, while substantial in absolute terms, rarely tips the calculus for individuals already paying effective rates above 40% federally.
The realities of new governance
There’s also the matter of implementation. Mamdani takes office in December, but enacting his tax proposals requires cooperation from Governor Kathy Hochul and the state legislature – neither of which appears eager to hand him a policy blank check.
New York’s famously fractious political landscape means campaign promises often meet legislative reality with a thud.
Analyst consensus points toward moderate 2-4% annual appreciation through 2026, with luxury continuing to outpace the mid-market. The fundamentals – limited inventory, global demand, and New York’s enduring position as a financial capital – remain intact.
Yet prudence demands acknowledging the counterarguments. Some agents note clients adopting a “wait and see” approach, hesitant to commit until Mamdani’s actual governance style crystallizes.
What this means at the upper-end of the segment
For the super-prime segment – properties above $10 million – the Mamdani effect appears even more muted. At this tier, buyers operate in a rarefied market where New York competes not with Miami or Austin, but with London, Hong Kong, and Dubai.
Interestingly, according to Daniel Daggers, CEO and founder of super-prime consultancy DDRE Global, London is showing early traction among the ultra-wealthy thanks to the country’s own political situation.
“We’re seeing a notable uptick in New York buyers and tenants exploring London property – and the timing isn’t coincidental,” Daggers writes on LinkedIn. “The political climate in major US cities is increasingly polarised especially in NYC with the new elected Democratic Socialist Mayor coming into power.”
Pointing towards recent changes in UK tax laws, Daggers continues: “The UK’s four-year non-dom tax relief for new arrivals runs directly in line with the Mayor’s term (four years) and when you add the strengthening dollar (up 4.4% against the pound) London suddenly looks very attractive place to be if you’re not thinking about Florida, and want to enjoy some European live-style for a short, or even long time.”
Time to decide: resilience or panic
Transactions elsewhere driven by similar capital flows, corporate relocations, and generational wealth transfers that dwarf local political considerations. The real test will come not from rhetoric but from results.
If Mamdani succeeds in implementing significant tax increases and the city maintains its quality of life, services, and business environment, the luxury market will likely absorb the changes with minimal disruption.
If, however, tax hikes coincide with deteriorating conditions or exodus of major employers, the delayed reaction could be pronounced.
Six months into the Mamdani era – albeit still in its transition phase – the verdict is clear: New York’s luxury real estate market has proven far more resilient than doomsayers predicted. The wealthy haven’t fled en masse.
Trophy properties in the city look set to command record prices, and to buy one in this iconic city remains one of the biggest prizes of all.
