New data shows Manhattan’s luxury housing market burned its way through one of longest cold snaps in New York’s history.
According to Corcoran’s latest Manhattan Market Report, January 2026 marked the second-strongest month in a decade for contracts signed above $5 million. Active listings in that tier fell to just 732 – the lowest January total since 2013 – underscoring the degree to which scarce inventory is shaping the upper end of the market.
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Average price per square foot rose year-over-year, too, while marketing times have shortened indicating well-priced luxury properties are moving faster than they did a year ago.
Yet the borough-wide picture does reveal a striking geographical imbalance. While the Upper East Side held steady with consistent year-over-year sales, virtually all other Manhattan submarkets have felt the cold.
Midtown was particularly affected, with contract activity falling 21% compared to January 2025 – a notable drop in a neighbourhood that is known for consistent deal flows at its highest end.
| Submarket | 2026 Contracts | 2025 Contracts | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Manhattan | 0 | 0 | NA |
| Upper West Side | 15 | 10 | +50% |
| Upper East Side | 29 | 16 | +81% |
| Midtown | 4 | 8 | -50% |
| Downtown | 22 | 30 | -27% |
| Financial District / BPC | 1 | 3 | -67% |
The Upper East Side factor
So what is setting the Upper East Side apart?
The Corcoran data highlighted how new development activity is a key driver, with contracts asking over $4,000 per square foot – predominantly concentrated on the Upper East Side – forming the bulkhead for the increase in luxury contract exchanges.
One project in particular, 1122 Madison Avenue by Legion Investment Group and Nahla Capital, has already moved half of its 26 units since launching sales off-plans less than a month ago, commanding nearly $4,300 per square foot.
The neighbourhood’s appeal to cash-rich buyers has similarly been enduring.
This category now accounts for more than 65% of all Manhattan transactions and upwards of 90% of sales above $3 million and has only intensified as inventory tightens and new construction elsewhere on the island slows.
A market of two speeds
The divergence between the Upper East Side and the rest of Manhattan reflects a broader dynamic that had been building throughout 2025.
Buyers in Manhattan signed 1,436 contracts for homes priced at $4 million and above last year – an 11% jump from 2024 and the second-highest annual tally since tracking began in 2006, according to Olshan Realty.
Total luxury spending reached nearly $12 billion, up from $11.1 billion the prior year.
This strength has not been evenly distributed. The $3 million to $5 million range emerged as the market’s sweet spot, posting double-digit contract growth, while activity below $1 million fell 20% year-over-year in January, dragged down by a sluggish co-ops resale market.
Condominiums continued to outsell co-ops at a ratio of roughly three to one, a trend that has held steady for over a decade.
Outlook: scarcity as a tailwind
Looking ahead, several structural factors suggest the Upper East Side’s advantage may persist. Ground-up development across Manhattan has slowed significantly, with new housing starts dropping sharply in 2025.
The luxury listing pipeline remains thin, with resale co-op and new development inventory both posting double-digit annual declines.
For buyers, the message is clear: act decisively when opportunities arise, because the competition for quality stock is unlikely to ease.
Brokers expect Midtown, the Upper West Side, and Greenwich Village to serve as additional hotspots in the months ahead.
But for now, in a borough where the broader market cooled through the winter, the Upper East Side stood alone as the neighbourhood that refused to freeze.
