As governments pull mobile wealth in opposite directions, the true cost of tax reform is seen not in immediate exits, but in where the next generation of capital quietly chooses to land.
In China, wealthy investors are scrambling for legal advice as Beijing targets offshore assets. Italy, meanwhile, is strengthening its position as one of Europe’s leading prime residential markets with a favourable flat-tax not putting off investors.
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Branded residences are following the money, expanding in the markets attracting mobile wealth, offering security, management and familiar service to buyers arriving in a new country, or to those newly minted HNWIs looking for new and exclusive options.
Tax may start the conversation, but property reveals when the move has become real.
Italy’s €300,000 flat tax maintains high inward demand
Although it is not the only reason wealth is moving to the country, Italy’s favourable flat-tax regime has been pulling in UHNWIs for some time.
Knight Frank’s recent Italian Homes report shows the relative value still available across several of the country’s prime markets. In Rome and Florence, €1 million buys approximately 79–89 square metres of prime property.
That is significantly more space than buyers receive in traditional European cities including Paris, Madrid and London.
The flat-tax regime should not be underestimated as part of Italy’s appeal. Since the original €100,000 annual charge on foreign income was introduced in 2017, average asking prices in Milan have risen by 50%.
Tax has not driven that increase alone. Milan’s position as Italy’s financial and commercial centre, combined with limited prime stock and growing international demand, has also pushed values higher. However, the overlap between incoming wealth and rising property prices is becoming difficult to ignore.
Tax considerations now drive more than 60% of Knight Frank’s international super-prime enquiries. Even the recent increase in Italy’s annual flat-tax charge to €300,000 appears to have done little to weaken demand.
Recent HM Revenue & Customs figures in the UK provide an interesting comparison. The number of people claiming non-dom status in the UK fell by only 0.5%, or approximately 400 people, during the 2024–25 tax year – far short of the mass exodus that had been predicted after it changed its non-dom tax policy.
However, those figures largely predate the abolition of the old regime in April 2025, making it too early to measure the full effect of the reforms.
The more important question may therefore be not how many existing residents leave, but how many, or how few, new ones decide to arrive.
Knight Frank estimates that 89 new UHNWIs were created every day between 2021 and 2026. With the global population of wealthy individuals continuing to expand, tax changes could influence where this next generation chooses to live, invest and purchase property.
UK slowdown signals shift in capital flows
The UK experience matters because, despite the absence of a mass exodus in the available tax data, the country has lagged behind several of its European neighbours in UHNW population growth more broadly.
Between 2021 and 2026, France’s UHNW population increased by 21.3%, Germany’s by 32%, Italy’s by 23% and Spain’s by 41.8%. The UK recorded growth of just 12.1%.
A tougher tax regime cannot be blamed for that relative slowdown on its own. Economic growth, political stability, lifestyle, business opportunities and property-market conditions all influence where wealthy people choose to establish themselves.
But the figures suggest that the biggest effect of tax reform may not always be visible in the departure lounge. It may appear in the investors who quietly choose somewhere else.
Beijing targets offshore assets as Asian capital restructures
That could provide a warning for China, which has introduced a 20% tax on offshore trusts at nearly every stage of their existence, from the initial transfer of assets to distributions and termination.
The move places new friction around one of the world’s fastest-growing concentrations of private wealth.
According to Altrata – a global wealth-intelligence firm tracking the assets, activity and geographic distribution of HNW and UHNW individuals – Hong Kong ranks second only to New York for its resident UHNW population. Its number of ultra-wealthy residents increased by 26.4% in 2025, the strongest growth among the 12 leading wealth cities.
Beijing is therefore tightening its grip on offshore assets just as Hong Kong strengthens its position as one of the world’s leading wealth hubs.
The immediate result may not be an exodus. Existing Chinese wealth has deep business, family and property ties to the region. Instead, families may restructure their holdings, establish genuine economic substance elsewhere or direct future capital towards competing hubs such as Singapore and Dubai.
The risk for China is not simply that today’s wealthy residents leave. It is that tomorrow’s wealth decides to build its life somewhere else.
Branded residences track emerging global wealth hubs
Even without a mass exodus from established wealth centres, where the next generation chooses to live and spend matters.
Whether wealth is relocating across borders or being created domestically, property developers and luxury brands are moving towards the markets where it is beginning to concentrate.
Donald Trump’s real estate business provides one example. A new Trump Towers development in Hyderabad is expected to generate up to US $367 million in sales, according to development partner Tribeca Developers.
The project is entering a market where wealth is expanding both rapidly and domestically. The 2026 edition of the 360 ONE Wealth Creators List identifies 3,040 Indians with fortunes exceeding approximately $48 million, including more first-generation entrepreneurs than legacy wealth holders.
India is already the Trump Organization’s largest property market outside the US, with branded developments in Pune, Mumbai, Kolkata and Gurugram. Hyderabad is therefore not simply another licensing deal. It is a bet on where the next generation of luxury-property demand will emerge.
Branded residences offer these buyers an internationally recognisable standard of design, security and service without requiring them to relocate overseas.
For developers, the brand provides an immediate route into a growing wealth market. For buyers, however, the name above the door should be treated as confirmation of demand – not a substitute for value.
As opportunities emerge in favourable-tax destinations and wealth comes under pressure elsewhere, investors should be asking where relative value still lies.
Branded residences provide one clue, showing where developers expect wealthy buyers to live and spend next.
For UHNW allocators, the actionable opportunity lies in front-running institutional brand arrivals – capitalising on destination markets while relative value remains unpriced, rather than paying the late-stage brand premium.
